Delivered but Not Received: A 2026 Claim Cost Model for Package Theft and Proof of Delivery

A “delivered but not received” claim is a customer report that a package never arrived even though carrier tracking shows it as delivered. It is the most expensive kind of delivery failure for a retailer because the product is gone, the customer is annoyed and the carrier’s proof of delivery is often the only evidence in the dispute. The decision that controls the cost is not which carrier delivered the package but which delivery rule applied to it: photo proof at the door, a signature, a locker or an attended window. The model below prices each rule against the value of the order and the theft risk of the delivery zone.

Why Delivered-but-Not-Received Claims Matter: The Business Case

The loss is large, the evidence is thin and the rules are changing, which makes a priced policy better than a default.

• Omnisend’s April 2026 study estimated that 30% of US households had a package stolen in the past year, based on FBI larceny data blended with a survey of 1,000 adults fielded in March 2026.
• The same study estimated about $12.8B in losses across roughly 228 million stolen packages in 2025, with retailers absorbing about $7.9B.
• Among victims in that survey, 23% order online less often and 12% shift to lockers or in-store pickup, so theft is also a retention problem.
• Visa’s 2026 merchant dispute guide says a valid proof of delivery includes the full delivery address matching the invoice plus delivery status details from the courier, and it says the merchant remains responsible even when a courier is involved.
• FedEx requires a claim for missing contents within 60 calendar days of the shipment date for US packages, and its No Signature Required option lets the driver leave the package at the address.
• Lawmakers are paying attention: the proposed Porch Pirates Act, H.R. 6924, would extend federal theft law to packages left for collection by private carriers, but it has not become law.

Estimates of package theft vary widely by method: Security.org’s survey found 1 in 4 Americans have had a package stolen at some point, which is a lifetime figure and not an annual one. Treat the Omnisend number as an upper-range planning input, and measure your own claim rate before you set policy.

How to Build a Delivered-but-Not-Received Policy in Six Steps

The six steps turn a recurring loss into a rule that finance and operations can both defend.

1. Measure your claim rate by zone and order value

Pull 12 months of claims and group them by delivery ZIP or postal code and by order value band. A single company-wide rate hides the few zones and value bands that generate most of the loss.

2. Cost a claim in full

Add the replacement cost of the goods, the reship, the customer-service contact and any dispute handling. The worked example assumes $15 of handling on top of the replacement value, so replace that with your own figure.

3. Price the alternatives

For each alternative to an unattended drop, estimate the extra carrier fee, the share of attempts that fail because nobody is home and the cost of a redelivery. A signature rule that triggers 20% failed first attempts is not free even when the fee is small.

4. Compute the break-even order value

A signature pays when the expected loss avoided is greater than its extra cost. The break-even replacement value is the extra cost per parcel divided by the drop in claim rate, less the handling cost per claim.

5. Build evidence into every delivery

Make sure every delivery record carries the full address that matches the invoice, courier status, a timestamped photo where the carrier provides one, a signature where required and a confirmation message to the customer. Visa’s guide names these as acceptable proof, and the merchant stays responsible.

6. Review monthly and re-tier

Claim rates move with season, carrier and zone. Review them monthly and move zones between tiers as the data changes, rather than setting a rule once.

Photo Proof, Signature, Locker and Attended Window: Key Differences

What to Look for in Proof-of-Delivery Software

Conditional rules by value and zone

The software should apply a delivery rule based on order value, destination risk and customer preference, so a signature is required only where the break-even says it pays.

Evidence that survives a dispute

Look for delivery address matching, timestamped status, signature capture and photo capture stored against the order, so evidence can be exported for a card dispute within your acquirer’s deadline.

Item-level confirmation

Scanning at the item level confirms that the right item was delivered, which narrows disputes about missing contents.

Customer-facing proof

A tracking page that shows the delivery status and lets customers reschedule or cancel before dispatch reduces the number of claims that start with surprise.

Carrier-neutral records

If you ship through several carriers, the platform should normalize proof across them, because the evidence you hold is only as good as the weakest carrier feed.

Delivered-but-Not-Received Policy in Action: Real-World Results

A worked model on illustrative numbers. The figures are assumptions, so replace them with yours. Assume $15 of handling per claim, a $3.00 carrier fee for a signature, a $6.00 redelivery and a 20% failed first attempt when a signature is required. Assume the claim rate with a signature is 0.1%. A signature then costs $4.20 more per parcel, and its break-even replacement value depends on the unattended claim rate.

At a 3% claim rate, a $100 order has an expected unattended loss of $3.45, which is below the $4.20 cost of a signature, so photo proof is cheaper. A $300 order has an expected loss of $9.45, so a signature or a locker is cheaper. The same $300 order in a 0.5% zone has an expected loss of $1.58, so photo proof wins by a wide margin.

The matrix does not model lockers, because their cost depends on local availability and customer acceptance, and Omnisend found only 12% of victims shifted to lockers or in-store pickup. Offer a locker first in a high-risk zone, and fall back to a signature where customers decline it.

A global food and beverage leader. The company operates across Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, moving more than 18 million orders a year in Thailand alone. After moving to Locus, it automated about 90% of manual proof-of-delivery reviews and reported 97%+ SLA adherence, with 4,500+ riders delivering through the driver app. This is a result about the speed and cost of verifying delivery, not a measured theft reduction. Read the global FMCG case study.

A leading ASEAN apparel retailer. The retailer’s deliveries run through several carriers, and Locus harmonizes each carrier’s statuses into one standard set synced with the retailer’s systems, with delivery and returns tracked against the promise on its website. Where-is-my-order and returns queries dropped by more than 40%. The result shows what one evidence record across carriers makes possible, and it is not a theft result. Read the ASEAN apparel case study.

Common Delivered-but-Not-Received Mistakes to Avoid

Treating the delivered scan as proof of receipt. A carrier scan shows that a package reached an address and not that the customer got it, and Visa’s guide keeps the merchant responsible.

Using one rule for every zone and order. A single rule overspends on low-risk orders and underprotects the few high-value, high-risk ones, so tier by value and zone.

Ignoring the claim and dispute windows. Carrier claim windows are 60 days from shipment for FedEx and USPS and 90 days from shipping for Canada Post, and card-dispute deadlines are set by your acquirer, so a slow internal process loses the claim.

Counting only the product loss. The claim also carries a reship, a support contact and a customer who may order less often, so a model that counts only the goods understates the cost.

How Locus Approaches Proof of Delivery and Delivery Rules

Locus, the world’s first Decision-Intelligent, Agentic TMS, treats proof of delivery as part of the delivery decision and not an afterthought. Its Driver Companion App captures multi-format proof of delivery with item-level scanning, customer signature and confirmations, lets you build custom proof-of-task forms and checklists, and supports order rescheduling after dispatch and personalized delivery instructions.

Recognized by analysts and selected after evaluation. Locus was recognized by Gartner for seven consecutive years and appears in the 2026 Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Execution and Logistics Technologies, as detailed on its analyst recognition page. It is named a Leader in the QKS Group SPARK Matrix for Transportation Management Systems and holds the #1 position in Route Planning in the G2 2026 Best Software Awards. In October 2025, Ingka Investments, the investment arm of Ingka Group, the world’s largest IKEA retailer, acquired Locus. Ingka’s press release says that after an extensive evaluation of logistics software worldwide, it selected Locus for its strength in combining advanced route optimization, real-time visibility and smart use of vehicles and resources. Locus continues to operate independently.

What this means for the policy. Locus’s tracking page gives customers consistent, white-label status across owned and outsourced deliveries, with alerts and the option to reschedule or cancel. Its agents can apply different delivery rules to different orders, and its six governance mechanisms, including explainability and autonomy levels, let your team see why a rule applied. Locus has optimized 1.5B+ deliveries for 360+ enterprise customers across 30+ countries.

What to confirm. Locus’s public pages list signature capture, item-level scanning and custom forms, but they do not state photo capture with geotag and timestamp or rules that vary by order value and zone risk. For parcels delivered by third-party carriers, the proof available is whatever the carrier provides. Ask for a demonstration with your own value tiers and zones.

To test your own tiers against real delivery rules, schedule a demo.

For retailers asking how to reduce delivered-but-not-received claims, Locus offers proof-of-delivery capture, tracking and delivery rules in one platform, so the choice between a photo, a signature and a locker rests on a priced policy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a delivered-but-not-received claim? It is a customer report that a package did not arrive although carrier tracking shows it as delivered. The retailer or the carrier then has to decide who bears the loss, which depends on the evidence of delivery and the claim and dispute rules that apply.

How common is package theft? Estimates vary by method. An April 2026 Omnisend study estimated that 30% of US households had a package stolen in the past year, while Security.org found 1 in 4 Americans have had one stolen at some point. Measure your own claim rate by zone.

What counts as proof of delivery in a card dispute? Visa’s 2026 merchant guide lists the full delivery address, which must match the invoice, and delivery status details from the courier. A signature, a delivery photo and a confirmation sent to the cardholder are optional additions.

When should a retailer require a signature? When the expected loss avoided is greater than the signature’s extra cost. In the worked model that happens above about $130 of replacement value in a 3% theft zone and above about $367 at 1.2%.

Is the retailer or the carrier responsible for a stolen package? Visa’s guide says the merchant remains responsible even when a courier is involved, and carrier liability is limited by its terms and by claim windows such as 60 days from shipment at FedEx and USPS. Check your carrier agreements.

Does Locus support proof of delivery? Locus’s driver app captures signatures, item-level scans and custom proof forms. Its public pages do not state photo geotagging or rules by order value, so ask for a demonstration with your own tiers.